It's Possible That Nobody Wins the 2012 GOP Nomination
02/10/2012 | 679 views | 0 0 comments | 0 0 recommendations | email to a friend | print

There is a scenario where nobody wins enough delegates to capture the 2012 GOP nomination. How could that nightmare for Mitt Romney unfold?



The Washington Examiner's Phillip Klein looks at the upcoming contests and sees a scenario where Romney or anyone else fails to win the 1,144 delegates needed for the nomination.


Here are the states that are probably solid or lean Romney states: Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Michigan, Maine, Vermont, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia (where Santorum and Gingrich aren’t on the ballot), and Indiana (where Santorum isn’t on the ballot).



Here are the states that it’s easier to see Santorum or Gingrich winning: Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Louisiana, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Wisconsin, Illinois, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.



Because most states in 2012 are allocated proportionally rather than winner-take-all, it’s really difficult to predict how the delegates would be awarded. Romney’s opponents will win delegates in states that he wins and he’ll get delegates in the states that he loses. But just for the sake of this exercise, if Romney were to win all of the delegates in all of the states that I identified above as solid or lean states, it would only get him to 1,008 delegates, still short of the required 1,144.



What happens then is unclear, because it would be unchartered territory in the modern era. In theory, all of the candidates can take their delegates to the convention and fight it out there. However, its also possible that one of the other candidates would cut a deal with Romney to release their delegates before then. Either way, such a scenario does not seem out of the question.

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